Tips & Ideas 

Ideas Farm: The most crowded trade Ever*

Ideas Farm: The most crowded trade Ever*

The latest Bank of America (BoA) fund manager survey has set a new record for most crowded trade. With 74 per cent of the vote, US tech stocks have been crowned “the longest ‘long’ of all-time” – *or at least since the survey started in 2013. Anyone casting an eye over the accompanying table of best ideas of top global funds will see this phenomenon writ large there too.

The extreme popularity of US tech – and other big tech plays –  should perhaps not come as too much of a surprise, or necessarily be seen with undue foreboding. For one thing, the survey has been conducted during exceptional times. Big US tech companies look like some of the few potential winners from the Covid crisis. It makes sense therefore that the fund managers contributing to the BoA also reckon a Covid vaccine is the biggest threat to tech share prices. Meanwhile healthcare, the other big Covid beneficiary, was the next most popular trade. 

Another potential caveat in regard to tech’s record popularity is that the boundary between tech and other sectors is increasingly blurred. Many would regard Amazon (US:AMZN) as a tech stock, for example. Yet a large portion of its sales are from retail and the most profitable part of the business is cloud storage. For index classification purposes it’s a 'consumer discretionary' company. Go figure. In our home market, Ocado for a long time was best thought of as a grocer, but license agreements have moved it more into the tech sphere… or do the massive capital commitments associated with its technology services contracts make it more of a logistics and property company? 

As 'tech' becomes ever more ubiquitous, trying to strictly define the sector is likely to become increasingly futile and misleading. What does look likely is the most exciting companies will continue to relentlessly harness the power of technology to build better businesses and achieve higher rates of growth. 

The fact the US has been a breeding ground for tech success should also perhaps come as little surprise. Wild west entrepreneurialism aside (yee ha!), the size and global influence of the country lends itself particularly well to building the kind of monopolistic power that has been so important to the global success of the very biggest tech plays. 

But herein perhaps lies an even bigger long-term risk to the most-crowded-trade-ever than a Covid vaccine. For good reason, a lot of people don’t like monopolies. People also don’t like companies that dodge tax, as big tech is widely seen to do. A big US election win for the Democrats, as current polling suggests is a genuine possibility, could see firm action on these issues, which would make life uncomfortable for big tech companies and their shareholders. Republicans are also well aware of the popular discontent.

Such fears may have contributed to a recent (at the time of writing) sharp setback for tech stocks, which means for the first time in a long time the Ideas Farm 52-week highs table isn’t peppered with the names of investment trusts with large tech positions. Interestingly though, the 52-week highs list does pick up on some of the other emerging themes coming out of the BoA survey: commodities and European equities. The popular healthcare theme is also evident in the list. 

While the list of stocks making new highs is once again far longer than the list of new lows, another finding from the BoA survey is that the mood among professional investors certainly does not seem dangerously bullish. Only 14 per cent think there will be a V-shaped recovery, with 44 per cent going for a 'U' and 30 per cent a 'W'. Cash levels in portfolios are rising, while 71 per cent think stocks are overvalued. The best bull markets often climb a wall of worry, though, so pessimism from this type of survey does not necessarily need to be viewed negatively.

Our tips section this week hits a lot of the themes highlighted by the BoA survey, and a number of the ideas we’ve looked at have featured in the Ideas Farm over recent weeks in our fund manager 'Best Ideas' lists. For tech-lovers we have cyber-security company Avast (AVST) -– although the monopolistic power of Microsoft is a potential threat. For healthcare fans there’s GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), and for those hoping to ride upside in commodities we have Atalaya Mining (ATYM)

 

Click here to view the tables in PDF form

 

 

New 52-week highs   
NameTIDMPrice% from high
Rentokil InitialRTO542p0.1%
Octopus Renewables InfraORIT114p0.2%
Croda InternationalCRDA5,480p0.2%
AntofagastaANTO1,008p0.3%
FresnilloFRES1,005p0.5%
SynconaSYNC269p0.6%
BunzlBNZL2,225p0.8%
Personal Assets TrustPNL44,650p0.8%
Best of the BestBOTB1,680p0.8%
Reckitt Benckiser GroupRB7,678p1.0%
SEGROSGRO936p1.0%
BBGIBBGI169p1.1%
Henderson EuroTrustHNE1,270p1.4%
Civitas SocialCSH110p1.4%
International PublicINPP169p1.5%
Cello HealthCLL163p1.5%
Bankers Invt TrustBNKR1,022p1.5%
Capital Gearing Trust PlcCGT4,420p1.6%
International BiotechIBT800p1.6%
JPMorgan Japanese InvtJFJ544p1.6%
Rio TintoRIO4,825p1.7%
Spirax-Sarco EngineeringSPX10,050p1.7%
RenishawRSW4,264p1.8%
BlackRock Greater Eu InvtBRGE433p1.8%
Baillie Gifford ShinBGS194p1.8%
Premier FoodsPFD88p1.9%
Gore Street EnergyGSF103p1.9%
VerditekVDTK13p1.9%
Shanta GoldSHG15p2.0%
JLEN Env Assets GroupJLEN122p2.0%
Fidelity European ValuesFEV267p2.0%
Smithson Investment TrustSSON1,498p2.1%
CentaminCEY189p2.2%
JPMorgan Global Core RealJARA110p2.2%
JPMorgan Global Core RealJARA110p2.2%
Martin Currie Global PortMNP323p2.3%
JTCJTC470p2.3%
B&M European Value RetailBME433p2.3%
Polar Cap Gbl HealthcarePCGH250p2.3%
Schroder AsiaPacific FundSDP490p2.4%
YouGovYOU790p2.5%
BlackRock World Mining TrBRWM394p2.5%
JBM CN Grw&IncJCGI526p2.6%
Triple Point Social Housing REITSOHO104p2.8%
Hipgnosis SongsSONG120p2.8%
Baker Steel Res TrustBSRT61p2.9%
RobinsonRBN119p2.9%
Fidelity Japan TrustFJV179p3.0%

Source: FactSet (15 Jul 20)

 

New 52-week lows   
NameTIDMPrice% from low
Oxford MetricsOMG71p0.0%
RotalaROL25p0.8%
Gem DiamondsGEMD24p1.6%
John Laing GroupJLG281p1.9%
Headlam GroupHEAD252p2.0%
STV GroupSTVG220p2.3%
PittardsPTD40p2.5%
UK Oil & GasUKOG0p2.7%
RTC GroupRTC36p2.8%
Galliford Try HoldingsGFRD101p2.8%
TOC Property Backed LndngPBLT86p2.9%

Source: FactSet (15 Jul 20)

 

Shorts   
CompanyShort InterestNo. Shorters1wk chg in short interest
HAMMERSON PLC13.1%90.5%
METRO BANK PLC9.5%40.0%
PREMIER OIL PLC8.7%30.0%
TULLOW OIL PLC8.2%60.1%
PEARSON PLC6.5%60.1%
PETS AT HOME GROUP PLC5.5%3-0.2%
DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC5.5%7-0.4%
PETROFAC LTD5.4%50.1%
GW PHARMACEUTICALS PLC5.2%40.0%
PETROPAVLOVSK PLC5.2%10.0%
BABCOCK INTL GROUP PLC4.9%30.3%
FUTURE PLC4.9%30.1%
BLUE PRISM GROUP PLC4.8%50.1%
CRODA INTERNATIONAL PLC4.6%5-0.1%
SAINSBURY (J) PLC4.5%30.8%
WEIR GROUP PLC/THE4.1%50.0%
VODAFONE GROUP PLC4.0%40.1%
WM MORRISON SUPERMARKETS4.0%30.3%
ASCENTIAL PLC3.9%5-0.1%
SMITH (DAVID S) HOLDINGS PLC3.9%5-0.6%
TUI AG3.9%4-0.1%
CAPITA PLC3.7%50.1%
WOOD GROUP (JOHN) PLC3.7%6-0.2%
DIGNITY PLC3.7%3-0.4%
MICRO FOCUS INTERNATIONAL3.5%31.1%
KEYWORDS STUDIOS PLC3.5%40.0%
A.G. Barr PLC3.4%3-0.3%
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP PLC3.2%20.0%
Primary Health Properties PLC3.1%4-0.1%
ULTRA ELECTRONICS HLDGS PLC3.0%10.0%
RESTAURANT GROUP PLC3.0%30.1%
VICTREX PLC2.9%30.2%
DAILY MAIL & GENERAL TRUST2.8%3-0.2%
ASHMORE GROUP PLC2.8%30.5%
VALARIS PLC2.8%10.0%
HARGREAVES LANSDOWN PLC2.7%40.1%
INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC2.7%20.1%
HISCOX LTD2.6%2NEW
AUTO TRADER GROUP PLC2.6%4-0.5%
AA PLC2.5%20.0%
Signature Aviation PLC2.5%40.0%
BRITISH LAND CO PLC2.4%30.0%
NETWORK INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS PLC2.4%3NEW
VIRGIN MONEY UK PLC2.4%3-0.1%
BURBERRY GROUP PLC2.3%3-0.8%
N. Brown Group2.3%20.0%

Source: FCA, as at 15 July 2020

 

Upgrades
Wednesday, 15 July 2020FWD EPS CHG
NameTIDM1mth3mth1yr
Yellow CakeYCA3076.2%-3825%
IGas EnergyIGAS400.0%-92.6%-89%
ZOO Digital GroupZOO337.1%--1%
Trackwise DesignsTWD226.9%157.6%70%
Draper EspritGROW209.2%26.9%-22%
Gear4music HoldingsG4M164.0%356.7%307%
Best of the BestBOTB110.2%168.5%311%
System1 GroupSYS1105.3%181.7%27%
TotallyTLY96.4%96.7%-
RMRM92.1%-76.7%-76%
Atalaya MiningATYM91.6%39.2%-47%
AntofagastaANTO83.0%35.1%-50%
United Oil & GasUOG76.8%--
Hummingbird ResourcesHUM71.2%--5%
Luceco PlcLUCE63.2%20.1%18%
De La RueDLAR61.9%57.0%-55%
NumisNUM45.8%-38%
TI Fluid SystemsTIFS44.8%-84.1%-92%
Equals GroupEQLS42.9%42.9%0%
3i Group PlcIII40.0%--38%
ECO Animal Health GroupEAH35.1%39.6%-58%
DWF GroupDWF34.6%-25.9%-1%
Codemasters Group HoldingsCDM34.6%37.1%20%
CMC MarketsCMCX31.2%7.2%320%
Up Global Sourcing HoldingsUPGS30.9%-15.3%0%
Just Eat Takeaway.comJET28.7%33.5%-
88888828.0%13.1%3%
Manolete PartnersMANO27.4%35.0%37%
ContourGlobal PlcGLO25.8%-11.7%-28%
Royal Dutch ShellRDSA24.8%-41.7%-84%
IofinaIOF23.7%134.6%50%
EckohECK22.8%22.8%23%
NCC GroupNCC22.7%22.7%-22%
BOKUBOKU22.1%22.7%44%
Royal Dutch ShellRDSB18.8%-45.9%-84%
Shearwater GroupSWG17.9%17.4%-
Photo-MePHTM17.7%35.9%2%
Motorpoint GroupMOTR17.3%17.3%22%
EKF DiagnosticsEKF16.6%58.9%-
FresnilloFRES16.5%17.8%-26%
Frasers GroupFRAS16.2%-15.3%8%
HelicalHLCL16.0%-18.8%-3%
boohoo groupBOO15.7%29.9%50%
CapitalCAPD14.5%7.7%40%
National Express GroupNEX14.1%-76.7%-81%
KAZ MineralsKAZ13.9%13.1%-17%
BunzlBNZL13.6%12.8%-9%
SercoSRP13.5%1.6%25%
FocusriteTUNE13.2%20.3%46%
Premier FoodsPFD12.4%14.4%19%
Rathbone BrothersRAT12.2%-9.4%-25%
Connect GroupCNCT12.1%12.1%-5%
FerrexpoFXPO11.7%21.5%-51%
Picton Property IncomePCTN11.7%11.3%7%
Civitas SocialCSH11.0%10.4%3%
Tatton Asset ManagementTAM10.8%10.8%12%
GlencoreGLEN10.8%-37.0%-80%
Associated British FoodsABF10.6%-25.3%-45%
BarclaysBARC10.4%-79.2%-93%
Pan African ResourcesPAF10.1%14.7%95%
CranswickCWK10.0%10.2%25%
Brooks MacDonald GroupBRK10.0%-5.2%3%
Liontrust Asset MgmtLIO9.9%11.0%12%
M&GMNG9.8%2.6%-
AscentialASCL9.7%-54.2%-75%
Games Workshop GroupGAW9.5%11.3%6%
B&M European Value RetailBME9.3%37.3%30%
G4SGFS8.2%-23.8%-41%
Caledonia MiningCMCL7.5%51.2%202%
Rio TintoRIO7.4%10.4%-22%
GlobalDataDATA6.9%6.9%29%
Impact HealthcareIHR6.9%9.3%-
UNITE GroupUTG6.5%-19.1%-42%
Jupiter Fund ManagementJUP5.9%0.6%-28%
Urban Logistics REITSHED5.9%-10.8%-9%
EVRAZEVR5.8%-6.8%-59%
Nucleus Financial GroupNUC5.6%-13.7%-36%
Gem DiamondsGEMD5.6%-59.7%-78%
Water IntelligenceWATR5.6%6.1%13%
Empiric StudentESP5.1%-42.4%-48%
MarloweMRL5.0%5.0%7%
PersimmonPSN4.8%-13.2%-30%
Central Asia MetalsCAML4.7%-9.0%-40%
Polymetal InternationalPOLY4.7%13.3%63%
Midwich GroupMIDW4.5%4.5%-1%
Oxford InstrumentsOXIG4.3%-19.9%-25%
CentaminCEY4.2%145.7%128%
Palace CapitalPCA4.1%-18.6%-24%
Drax GroupDRX4.0%-2.0%20%
Brewin DolphinBRW3.9%-4.6%-10%
Impax Asset Management GpIPX3.8%7.5%23%
ComputacenterCCC3.5%4.1%13%
ChesnaraCSN3.4%-39.4%-1%
SchrodersSDR3.4%2.8%-16%
Premier Miton GroupPMI3.4%11.0%-22%
Epwin HoldingsEPWN3.3%11.7%7%
Smart Metering SystemsSMS3.3%-5.5%-45%
St James's PlaceSTJ3.3%-1.7%2%
Smiths GroupSMIN3.3%-1.0%-13%
RBG HoldingsRBGP3.2%16.1%26%
Highland Gold MiningHGM3.2%-3.4%50%
Telecom PlusTEP3.1%-4.6%-7%

Souce: FactSet

 

Downgrades
Wednesday, 15 July 2020FWD EPS CHG
NameTIDM1mth3mth1yr
Arbuthnot Banking GroupARBB-87.6%-87.8%-85%
ULS TechnologyULS-84.2%-84.2%-86%
Nexus InfrastructureNEXS-80.7%-82.5%-75%
BPBP-80.4%-97.3%-99%
HuntingHTG-78.7%-93.5%-98%
Halfords GroupHFD-78.5%-76.9%-80%
Speedy HireSDY-78.5%-78.5%-79%
Renewi PlcRWI-71.9%-68.1%-74%
Forterra PlcFORT-69.3%-79.2%-83%
RenoldRNO-68.7%-68.7%-84%
Scapa GroupSCPA-65.7%-67.9%-75%
JD Sports FashionJD-65.6%-65.5%-64%
WincantonWIN-63.8%-63.5%-63%
SeniorSNR-60.3%-74.2%-91%
PageGroupPAGE-60.0%-80.8%-90%
1pmOPM-59.6%-57.4%-63%
HMLHMLH-53.2%--53%
First Property GroupFPO-52.2%--52%
McCarthy & StoneMCS-52.0%-57.9%-78%
N Brown GroupBWNG-51.9%-52.4%-60%
Shanta GoldSHG-50.0%-49.7%-11%
Breedon GrpBREE-48.7%-61.2%-63%
NewRiver REITNRR-48.6%-51.9%-52%
Griffin MiningGFM-48.3%-48.0%-54%
NorcrosNXR-47.5%-50.0%-58%
Kenmare ResourcesKMR-45.1%-47.5%-70%
Hochschild MiningHOC-45.1%-68.5%-61%
SavillsSVS-45.0%-45.6%-41%
MJ GleesonGLE-43.2%-80.0%-87%
MITIE GroupMTO-43.0%-42.5%-51%
Polypipe GroupPLP-40.4%-45.4%-54%
D4t4 SolutionsD4T4-39.2%-39.2%-52%
InterContinental Hotels GroupIHG-33.8%-65.5%-73%
Biffa PlcBIFF-33.1%-80.1%-82%
LSL Property ServicesLSL-32.3%-32.3%-47%
IbstockIBST-32.2%-60.2%-70%
TymanTYMN-31.8%-51.1%-55%
Ashtead GroupAHT-31.5%-36.7%-41%
Auto Trader GroupAUTO-31.3%-31.1%-33%
4Imprint GroupFOUR-30.5%-80.3%-86%
Secure Income REITSIR-30.0%-30.0%-50%
RecordREC-27.7%-28.5%-3%
Mediclinic InternationalMDC-27.1%-54.2%-54%
Advanced Medical Sol GrpAMS-27.0%-31.2%-42%
Virgin Money UKVMUK-26.8%-72.6%-86%
Taylor WimpeyTW-26.6%-44.0%-53%
Capital & Counties PropsCAPC-26.5%-64.1%-58%
Costain GroupCOST-26.5%-46.1%-74%
PetrofacPFC-25.5%-44.5%-65%
Crest NicholsonCRST-25.5%-45.3%-68%
GB GroupGBG-25.3%-24.2%-22%
STV GroupSTVG-25.2%-38.0%-38%
DS SmithSMDS-24.5%-24.8%-31%
Melrose IndustriesMRO-24.3%-61.6%-80%
Intu PropertiesINTU-23.8%-46.7%-76%
CapitaCPI-23.6%-36.9%-52%
Kier GroupKIE-23.4%-31.6%-64%
RedrowRDW-23.3%-35.2%-45%
SeverfieldSFR-22.9%-22.9%-20%
discoverIE GroupDSCV-21.3%-19.4%-26%
Burford CapitalBUR-21.1%-9.1%-35%
Kin and CartaKCT-20.8%-20.8%-45%
McKay SecuritiesMCKS-20.6%--26%
TrifastTRI-20.3%-23.6%-43%
Go-Ahead GroupGOG-20.2%-53.8%-60%
ShaftesburySHB-20.2%-36.1%-48%
Braemar Shipping ServicesBMS-18.9%-18.9%-15%
Bushveld MineralsBMN-18.6%-18.6%-60%
Bank of Georgia GroupBGEO-18.5%-33.4%-42%
Anexo GroupANX-18.0%-18.9%-9%
CalisenCLSN-17.6%--
Capital & RegionalCAL-17.0%-39.8%-65%
KingfisherKGF-16.7%-16.2%-24%
Inspiration Healthcare GpIHC-16.7%-11.1%0%
Barratt DevelopmentsBDEV-16.0%-29.4%-37%
Vistry GroupVTY-15.7%-27.2%-32%
RPS GroupRPS-15.7%1.8%-50%
Air PartnerAIR-15.5%24.5%-12%
TalkTalk Telecom GroupTALK-15.3%2.5%-11%
MarshallsMSLH-14.9%-27.6%-35%
Tekmar Group PlcTGP-14.4%-14.4%-52%
FRP Advisory GroupFRP-13.8%--
GCP Student LivingDIGS-13.7%-24.8%-29%
TBC Bank GroupTBCG-13.5%-51.3%-50%
Dixons CarphoneDC-13.5%-20.5%-39%
Howden Joinery GroupHWDN-13.5%-45.4%-43%
Pets At HomePETS-12.7%-30.9%-24%
RightmoveRMV-12.4%-30.0%-42%
AggrekoAGK-12.3%-35.2%-46%
Standard CharteredSTAN-12.3%-52.7%-62%
Vivo EnergyVVO-12.2%-45.1%-50%
VolexVLX-12.2%-12%
BeazleyBEZ-12.1%-89.6%-92%
InformaINF-11.8%-46.6%-60%
TescoTSCO-11.4%-25.7%-22%
CentricaCNA-11.3%-37.4%-57%
Intermediate Capital GrpICP-11.1%-18.6%-26%
Warehouse REITWHR-11.0%-10.9%14%
Network International HoldingsNETW-10.8%-46.1%-48%
Countryside PropertiesCSP-10.5%-35.6%-37%
Lloyds Banking GroupLLOY-10.5%-59.5%-81%
LancashireLRE-10.2%-31.8%-34%
Paragon Banking GroupPAG-10.2%-20.1%-35%
Vodafone GroupVOD-10.2%8.7%-5%
Morgan Advanced MaterialsMGAM-10.1%-14.2%-30%
First DerivativesFDP-10.0%-31.0%-32%
Close Brothers GroupCBG-10.0%-36.0%-44%
1SpatialSPA-9.6%15.3%17%
Litigation Capital MgmtLIT-9.4%-3.0%27%
VictrexVCT-9.4%-20.9%-29%
Hill & SmithHILS-9.1%-19.9%-33%
Medica GroupMGP-9.1%-14.9%-34%
HaysHAS-9.0%-31.8%-68%
AEW UK REITAEWU-9.0%-9.0%-9%
RestoreRST-8.5%-36.7%-41%
Phoenix Group HoldingsPHNX-8.4%-14.2%17%
WPPWPP-8.3%-22.9%-45%
Moneysupermarket com GrpMONY-8.1%-17.7%-18%
BodycoteBOY-7.7%-16.0%-46%
AbcamABC-7.7%-20.4%-39%
NicholsNICL-7.7%-25.9%-35%
MeggittMGGT-7.6%-33.6%-45%
Man GroupEMG-7.4%-5.4%-25%
SSESSE-6.4%-6.6%-16%
PorvairPRV-6.3%-15.4%-22%
Morses ClubMCL-6.2%-10.9%-24%
AvingtransAVG-5.9%-5.9%19%
Curtis Banks GroupCBP-5.9%-5.9%-17%
Morgan Sindall GroupMGNS-5.9%-26.2%-36%
Equiniti GroupEQN-5.6%-18.3%-30%
Vectura GroupVEC-5.6%-7.3%17%
InchcapeINCH-5.5%-50.9%-59%
Smith & NephewSN-5.4%-27.4%-33%
Clinigen GroupCLIN-5.4%-6.5%22%
Coats GroupCOA-5.1%-45.1%-71%
EssentraESNT-5.1%-15.1%-40%
St Modwen PropertiesSMP-4.8%-32.2%-22%
Babcock International GroupBAB-4.6%-22.4%-26%
National GridNG-4.6%-4.1%-2%
AG BARRBAG-4.6%-19.2%-39%
PetropavlovskPOG-4.6%249.2%911%
HSBC HoldingsHSBA-4.5%-43.6%-61%
Redde NorthgateREDD-4.5%-6.0%-18%
RicardoRCDO-4.3%-25.3%-38%
AB DynamicsABDP-4.3%-17.0%-5%
Standard Life AberdeenSLA-4.2%-5.9%-32%
Travis PerkinsTPK-4.1%-33.8%-45%
Greencore GroupGNC-4.0%-56.7%-54%
Science In SportSIS-3.9%-3.9%-
VesuviusVSVS-3.7%-23.6%-54%
Land Securities GroupLAND-3.7%-25.5%-25%
BellwayBWY-3.5%-17.5%-35%
Rank GroupRNK-3.3%-36.9%-36%
RELXREL-3.3%-7.5%-7%
CareTechCTH-3.3%2.5%15%
Johnson MattheyJMAT-3.1%-25.2%-38%
DiplomaDPLM-3.1%-9.5%-11%
Domino's Pizza GroupDOM-3.1%-1.0%3%
British LandBLND-3.1%-21.5%-22%
BritvicBVIC-3.1%-15.3%-29%
Serica EnergySQZ-3.0%-63.4%-64%

Souce: FactSet

 

Click here to view the tables in PDF form

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